Current Implications of the Dispute
Recent Geopolitical Dynamics
Most significantly, the Galwan Valley Clash between India and China in 2020 represent a significant shift in the region’s dynamics. While both countries, in foreign affairs communications and resolutions, emphasize bilateral, peaceful negotiations between India and Pakistan, this event highly speaks to the military misalignment and volatility – and a broader pattern of increasing tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
The clash exemplifies the increasing militarization along the LAC, raising concerns about the broader security implications for the region. Both India and China have been bolstering their military presence along the border, contributing to an atmosphere of distrust and competition. This militarization poses risks not just for these two countries, but also for regional stability in Kashmir. Despite ongoing military talks, large-scale demilitarization seems unlikely stemming from a lack of trust between the powers – underscoring the necessity of effective and productive diplomatic engagement and potential intervention.
Impact of India's Constitutional Changes
The abrogation of Article 370 in the Indian constitution in 2019 was a huge shift in determining the relationships between India, China and Pakistan in this conflict. This policy removed the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, making it two Union Terroritories, and significantly altered the dynamics of the region.
China's Reaction
China's reaction was swift and critical, with foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying denouncing the policy as "unacceptable" and acts to ​​“impede China’s sovereignty.” Furthermore, in Dec 2023, China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning reiterated China’s stance that the Kashmir issue should be resolved in accordance with the UN Charter and Security Council resolutions – in stark contrast to India’s view of the Kashmir conflict as a purely bilateral matter. China's objection was not limited to diplomatic statements, but it was also followed by increased military activities in the disputed border areas, particularly in the Galwan Valley Clash.
Pakistan's Reaction
Pakistan's stance, which has been to internationalize the Kashmir dispute, found some resonance in China's approach, leading to at least three closed meetings of the UN Security Council initiated by China to discuss the revocation of Kashmir's special status. These new developments, with India's assertion that disputed areas including Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and Aksai Chin are key parts of Jammu and Kashmir, as stated by Indian Home Minister Amit Shah, have drawn increased international attention to the region. However, the response among the international community has been sparse, with many leaning towards the matter as an internal issue between the relevant parties.
Humanitarian and Economic Impacts
The humanitarian consequences of this conflict must be recognized. International law specifically prohibits the removal of one’s ‘right to life’ under any circumstances, including cruel or inhuman treatment. According to Human Rights Watch, India has “systematically violated these fundamental norms of international human rights law” in this conflict. This is heightened by the fact that the conflict stems from religious roots – with the right to self-determination of the majority-Muslim population in Kashmir being impeded by Indian forces driven by Hindu nationalism. Not only are deaths prevalent from military conflict and terrorism, but also from widespread domestic terrorism. Allegations including mass homicides, torture, sexual violence, and arbirtrary arrest are all testament to the infringement upon human rights in Kashmir.
On an external level, not only is there consistently fear of conflict, but Kashmiri’s are denied access to fundamental health care – a basic human right. Kashmiris are also living under great distress with no communication with the outside world, further heightening their adverse state. These factors contribute to what the Editors of The Lancet described as a “formidable mental health crises” as a result of growing up in an extremely militarized state.